Two Major Florida Endorsements

John McCain has received two significant endorsements in the last few days in Florida. The first is from Senator Mel Martinez. His support might be crucial in helping swing around the Cuban vote in the Florida Republican primary.

The second, and even more important endorsement, comes from Governor Charlie Crist. Crist is very popular, 65% support right now from what I have heard, and his endorsement is excellent news for John.

Don't forget that you too can help with the Florida primary, by helping make phone calls into Florida to encourage people to vote for John. To find out more, check here.

Event on January 29th-Updated

This is an announcement of an upcoming event on the 29th of January. C-SPAN is bringing one of their newest vehicles into San Luis Obispo to show it off at two events that day. At 11:30 they will be visiting Cal Poly and at 3:30 they will be visiting the San Luis Obispo City Hall. All McCain supporters are encouraged to show up to help make our presence felt. I am afraid only limited information is available at this point, as more is acquired I will update this post.

Update: Here is the new contact e-mail associated with this blog:

mccain2008slo@gmail.com

If you have any questions or concerns, use that e-mail address to get in touch.


Update 2: More info is available on the event tomorrow. Some of it can be found here, or for the full release:

SAN LUIS OBISPO -- ASI Events presents the C-SPAN Campaign 2008 Bus: “Road to the White House” tour stop on campus Jan. 29, from noon to 2 p.m. on Mott Lawn in front of the gym.

The tour is dedicated to educating students on the political process and informing them of issues and events that shape presidential campaigns, including the coming 2008 presidentia campaign.

The C-SPAN Campaign 2008 Bus is a 45-foot, mobile multi-media demonstration center and TV production unit that brings the world of public affairs to communities nationwide.

“This is an excellent opportunity for college students to stop by for a few minutes and learn more about the political race before Super Tuesday” Feb. 5, said ASI Events Outreach Supervisor Kristin Savage. Representatives from key presidential candidates are scheduled to attend.

For more information about the Campaign 2008 Bus: “Road to the White House” contact Michelle Curro, ASI Program Coordinator at 805-756-2324 or mcurro@calpoly.edu

Also, the Telegram Tribune has an article in today's paper (the 28th) in the local section, below the fold on the event.

Lastly, if you plan on visiting the Cal Poly event, don't forget to stop by the information desks in order to get a parking ticket for the day! Here is a link to useful maps of the campus.

Another Debate Tonight

Tonight it will be on MSBC, at 9 PM EST, or 6 PM PST. Be sure to tune in; right now it looks increasingly like Rudy Giuliani's last stand.

Observation on Florida

Based on the latest date from the RCP Average, as well as a gut hunch and polls like this, I believe that Florida, far from being the last stand of Rudy Giuliani, will in fact turn out to be a battle between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Rudy is continuing into free-fall, and I think his campaign is a goner.

Stormin' Norman Endorses John McCain

Straight from the campaign website:

ARLINGTON, VA -- Today, General H. Norman Schwarzkopf, U.S. Army (Ret.) issued the following statement endorsing John McCain for President of the United States:

"Senator John McCain has served our country with honor in war and in peace. He has demonstrated the type of courageous leadership our country sorely needs at this time. For that reason, he has my complete support."

John McCain thanked General Schwarzkopf for his support, stating, "General Norman Schwarzkopf's distinguished lifetime of service and uncommon devotion to our nation has earned him the respect and admiration of the American people. I am honored by his support."

John has not been in the service for decades, but he still garners the respect of those who served, and those who still do. No other candidate out there has the support of as many military leaders as John does. They understand, as do I, that he is the best bet right now to help keep America safe, and to see this Long War through.

State of the Campaign Part 2

This is a continuation of my previous post on the state of the campaign. So far, things are going fairly well for John as far as strategy goes. While a win in Michigan didn't happen, wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina more than make up for it, as both are far more important to the overall GOP race. Florida is next, where John currently leads the RCP average. Note that all of those polls are before South Carolina (and Nevada too), and thus before whatever surge in support John might experience, and whatever negative effect a 2% showing by Rudy Giuliani might have in a state where he lead or was tied for the lead two months ago.

So what will a Post-South Carolina and Nevada GOP race look like? Well, right now in the RCP average John has 23.2% support, Rudy has 20.3%, Mitt has 18%, Mike has 17.3% and Fred 8.5%. Ron Paul's 5% support probably is in isolation to everything else.

I expect that Rudy Giuliani's numbers will continue their steady drop, along with Mike Huckabee's to a small extent, and Fred Thompson's as well. I believe that John will enjoy a nice uptick in support, and Mitt Romney to a small extent as well. Why?

Rudy Giuliani's support in Florida is "soft", in my opinion. He has been aggressively campaigning there the past few months with little to no opposition. No other candidate has made any significant face time there. Once the others start to actively campaign in Florida, I expect his support there to erode further, as those candidates start to impress. Also, Rudy's poor showing in South Carolina and John's success will also cause a shift in support from Rudy to John. How much I can't say for sure, but I expect a point or two at least. A lot of Republicans supported Rudy because they saw him as the most electable candidate; now that John has been shown to be the most electable Republican I suspect much of his increased support lately has been shifting Rudy supporters. I see this continuing.

Mike Huckabee will lose a little support as some of his leaning supporters see he hasn't gained support among non-Evangelicals, and believe his chances of winning the nomination are effectively zero. I figure John and Romney pick up these voters.

Fred Thompson has been losing support for a while now, I expect him to keep on gradually losing support much like Rudy has. His disenchanted voters will likely switch over to Mitt or simply not vote at all.

Mitt Romney will benefit from the loss in support among Huckabee and Thompson supporters, and probably pick up a couple of points in the next poll. Also, his name recognition has been slowly increasing over time, so that will factor in as well.

We will know more once the first polls after South Carolina come out.

Victory in South Carolina

I am sure that everyone reading this blog knows by now that John McCain has won South Carolina. This is a huge win for the Senator, and now restores the Momentum to him. Be sure to Contribute to the campaign to help keeping the Momentum going into Florida and beyond. If you are not yet a supporter, but are interested joining the campaign, you can sign up here. Also, you can leave comments here on this blog and I will try and get in tough with you, or you can e-mail me at sean(c)baird(@)gmail.com . Just remove the parenthesis for the address, they are an unfortunate necessity in this day of online spam-bots.