Sorry for the late posting. For those of you who didn't catch it, there was a debate this Saturday in which John took part on ABC. It should be broadcast at 7 PM here in the Central Coast.
Also, on Sunday John will be on Meet the Press at 8AM PST. Later, he will be on Face the Nation. Finally, there will be another debate on Fox at 8 PM EST, hopefully 5 PM PST.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
On to New Hampshire!
Well, Iowa is done and over with. The consequences we shall soon find out in full. So far, it appears to have made the Democratic race a real one, with Obama and Hillary looking set to fight it out for a while at least.
As for the Republican race, Huckabee has confirmed his move into the front tier. Romney has suffered a pretty significant defeat. While a lot of pro-Romney people are saying that Huckabee's bigoted attacks, and playing himself up as a "Christian leader" are to blame, I think that its mainly an issue of authenticity. Romney wasn't convincing a lot of Evangelicals on his social views, and they fled to Huckabee, or rather flocked. Unlike Romney, Huckabee had a record of social conservatism, and the genuine charisma to convince people of it. Sincerity matters in politics. Romney is learning that money may be the mother's milk of politics, but it is sincerity that makes it sweet tasting.
I should note that Real Clear Politics has John McCain currently leading in New Hampshire. The trend lines all have shown themselves to be in John's direction. Most important, those polls are all before Romney's significant loss in Iowa. At the very least, he has no momentum going into New Hampshire to turn around John's recent rise in support. And some of his less committed supporters have to be wondering just how viable he really is. Money is the only thing Romney has going for him, and that didn't save him in Iowa.
As for the Republican race, Huckabee has confirmed his move into the front tier. Romney has suffered a pretty significant defeat. While a lot of pro-Romney people are saying that Huckabee's bigoted attacks, and playing himself up as a "Christian leader" are to blame, I think that its mainly an issue of authenticity. Romney wasn't convincing a lot of Evangelicals on his social views, and they fled to Huckabee, or rather flocked. Unlike Romney, Huckabee had a record of social conservatism, and the genuine charisma to convince people of it. Sincerity matters in politics. Romney is learning that money may be the mother's milk of politics, but it is sincerity that makes it sweet tasting.
I should note that Real Clear Politics has John McCain currently leading in New Hampshire. The trend lines all have shown themselves to be in John's direction. Most important, those polls are all before Romney's significant loss in Iowa. At the very least, he has no momentum going into New Hampshire to turn around John's recent rise in support. And some of his less committed supporters have to be wondering just how viable he really is. Money is the only thing Romney has going for him, and that didn't save him in Iowa.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Iowa Round-Up
Well, it looks like my predictions for the Democrats were correct. Obama won, with Edwards barely above Hillary.
I admit, I am surprised by just how well Huckabee performed. Romney is in trouble, thats for sure. He has no momentum to help him in New Hampshire. As for third and fourth, John McCain and Fred Thompson are currently trading places.
More as it comes along.
I admit, I am surprised by just how well Huckabee performed. Romney is in trouble, thats for sure. He has no momentum to help him in New Hampshire. As for third and fourth, John McCain and Fred Thompson are currently trading places.
More as it comes along.
Iowa's Turn to Shine
The Iowa Caucuses are tonight, with three major issues at stake here. Firstly, who wins the Democratic caucuses? Many polls show a virtual tie, the effect of Iowa could be to sink Edwards, give him a shot in South Carolina, or gift Obama with some major momentum in New Hampshire, or it could support the notion of an inevitable Hillary victory?
My take: Toss up between Edwards and Obama winning, with Hillary getting second at best, I wouldn't be shocked to see her get third, which would help Obama in NH, and Edwards in SC. Its really a question of Edward's organization or Obama's enthusiasm.
The second major story will be who gets first among the Republicans, Huckabee or Romney. A Huckabee win could provide him the chance to break out and move onward to states like South Carolina. A Romney win could stop Huckabee cold, and help him recover lost ground in New Hampshire.
Among the Democrats, who gets fourth is a moot point, only the top three have a chance of winning. Among the Republicans, that is a different story entirely. The third and fourth place finishes could matter a great deal. If Fred Thompson gets third, he has a shot in South Carolina. If he doesn't get third, rumors are floating around that he will drop out. I don't know if this is true or not, I suspect he will stick around until at least South Carolina. However, a fourth place finish in a place he essentially called his home these past few weeks will probably be the nail in the coffin. If John McCain gets third place, it will provide him a boost going into New Hampshire. If he can poll third in the home of ethanol, while actively denouncing subsidies, especially of ethanol, it will only reinforce the surge John has been enjoying lately. A lower placing won't be shocking, however, given that same opposition to ethanol subsidies. At this point Ron Paul is mostly a spoiler, taking away fourth, which would hurt Thompson the most.
So what is going to happen? Its tough to say, given the poll irregularity lately.
My brother's take, for the Democrats at least, is that Ewards wins Iowa, followed by Obama then Clinton.
My take? Obama, then Edwards then Clinton, with Clinton possibly trailing quite a lot.
For the Republicans, I think its too close to call between Huckabee and Romney. I give it a 50/50 chance of either winning, but I do predict that John McCain will take third. The real question will be if Ron Paul takes fourth, instead of Thompson; should that happen those rumors of Thompson dropping out just might be true after all.
The important thing in all of this is that a lot of undecided voters remain. Whether they decide to vote or not, and who they vote for, can really skew the results.
My take: Toss up between Edwards and Obama winning, with Hillary getting second at best, I wouldn't be shocked to see her get third, which would help Obama in NH, and Edwards in SC. Its really a question of Edward's organization or Obama's enthusiasm.
The second major story will be who gets first among the Republicans, Huckabee or Romney. A Huckabee win could provide him the chance to break out and move onward to states like South Carolina. A Romney win could stop Huckabee cold, and help him recover lost ground in New Hampshire.
Among the Democrats, who gets fourth is a moot point, only the top three have a chance of winning. Among the Republicans, that is a different story entirely. The third and fourth place finishes could matter a great deal. If Fred Thompson gets third, he has a shot in South Carolina. If he doesn't get third, rumors are floating around that he will drop out. I don't know if this is true or not, I suspect he will stick around until at least South Carolina. However, a fourth place finish in a place he essentially called his home these past few weeks will probably be the nail in the coffin. If John McCain gets third place, it will provide him a boost going into New Hampshire. If he can poll third in the home of ethanol, while actively denouncing subsidies, especially of ethanol, it will only reinforce the surge John has been enjoying lately. A lower placing won't be shocking, however, given that same opposition to ethanol subsidies. At this point Ron Paul is mostly a spoiler, taking away fourth, which would hurt Thompson the most.
So what is going to happen? Its tough to say, given the poll irregularity lately.
My brother's take, for the Democrats at least, is that Ewards wins Iowa, followed by Obama then Clinton.
My take? Obama, then Edwards then Clinton, with Clinton possibly trailing quite a lot.
For the Republicans, I think its too close to call between Huckabee and Romney. I give it a 50/50 chance of either winning, but I do predict that John McCain will take third. The real question will be if Ron Paul takes fourth, instead of Thompson; should that happen those rumors of Thompson dropping out just might be true after all.
The important thing in all of this is that a lot of undecided voters remain. Whether they decide to vote or not, and who they vote for, can really skew the results.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
More Endorsements
I forgot to mention that several more newspapers have endorsed John McCain recently.
The Concord Monitor is one. Its a liberal rag, to be true, but they are picking the most electable Republican out there, so its not self-serving on their part.
The Detroit News has also endorsed John McCain. A short excerpt:
The Concord Monitor is one. Its a liberal rag, to be true, but they are picking the most electable Republican out there, so its not self-serving on their part.
The Detroit News has also endorsed John McCain. A short excerpt:
No matter whose ox is being gored, John McCain puts the country first. He is the leading critic of congressional earmarks to fund pork-barrel projects. He has co-sponsored campaign reforms to slow the influence of money in politics. He will use the veto pen if necessary to curb the growth of the federal government (nearly 50 percent during the past seven years).I don't agree with John on everything, but I know he will always put his country first, ahead of his own interests. I know thats not the case for the Democrats, and for some Republicans I have my doubts. I don't when it comes to John McCain.
The latest federal budget included more than 11,000 earmark projects worth roughly $20 billion -- or 12 times the number of earmarks in the 1996 budget. It will take a strong advocate for fiscal discipline in the White House to get spending under control. McCain has the experience to know when the economy needs a helping hand from the government, and when it would be better off without tinkering. Unlike Huckabee, he would not be tempted to respond to an economic bump with populist solutions that do more harm than good.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
John McCain now Leading in NH
The latest poll is out, and it shows John McCain leading in NH with 31% of the vote. This poll is consistent with the trends we have been seeing for the last few weeks, showing John steadily rising in the polls in NH. John is also rising in Iowa and the national polls as well, where Rasmussen shows him with a slight edge.
Update: My apologies, the poll was the 7News/Suffolk University Poll.
Update: My apologies, the poll was the 7News/Suffolk University Poll.
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