Iowa's Turn to Shine

The Iowa Caucuses are tonight, with three major issues at stake here. Firstly, who wins the Democratic caucuses? Many polls show a virtual tie, the effect of Iowa could be to sink Edwards, give him a shot in South Carolina, or gift Obama with some major momentum in New Hampshire, or it could support the notion of an inevitable Hillary victory?

My take: Toss up between Edwards and Obama winning, with Hillary getting second at best, I wouldn't be shocked to see her get third, which would help Obama in NH, and Edwards in SC. Its really a question of Edward's organization or Obama's enthusiasm.

The second major story will be who gets first among the Republicans, Huckabee or Romney. A Huckabee win could provide him the chance to break out and move onward to states like South Carolina. A Romney win could stop Huckabee cold, and help him recover lost ground in New Hampshire.

Among the Democrats, who gets fourth is a moot point, only the top three have a chance of winning. Among the Republicans, that is a different story entirely. The third and fourth place finishes could matter a great deal. If Fred Thompson gets third, he has a shot in South Carolina. If he doesn't get third, rumors are floating around that he will drop out. I don't know if this is true or not, I suspect he will stick around until at least South Carolina. However, a fourth place finish in a place he essentially called his home these past few weeks will probably be the nail in the coffin. If John McCain gets third place, it will provide him a boost going into New Hampshire. If he can poll third in the home of ethanol, while actively denouncing subsidies, especially of ethanol, it will only reinforce the surge John has been enjoying lately. A lower placing won't be shocking, however, given that same opposition to ethanol subsidies. At this point Ron Paul is mostly a spoiler, taking away fourth, which would hurt Thompson the most.

So what is going to happen? Its tough to say, given the poll irregularity lately.

My brother's take, for the Democrats at least, is that Ewards wins Iowa, followed by Obama then Clinton.

My take? Obama, then Edwards then Clinton, with Clinton possibly trailing quite a lot.

For the Republicans, I think its too close to call between Huckabee and Romney. I give it a 50/50 chance of either winning, but I do predict that John McCain will take third. The real question will be if Ron Paul takes fourth, instead of Thompson; should that happen those rumors of Thompson dropping out just might be true after all.

The important thing in all of this is that a lot of undecided voters remain. Whether they decide to vote or not, and who they vote for, can really skew the results.