Thoughts on Yesterday

I have had the time to do some thinking on yesterday's primary election in New Hampshire. It really was a surprising election. The Democratic race was much tighter than I expected, and Hillary's win certainly was a shock to pretty much everyone, me included. For the Republican side, John's victory margin was larger than I feared it would be, he and the New Hampshire team really pulled it off there.

For the Democrats, it looks like they are in for a serious race. This is good for the GOP, as it means more money is going to be spent on the primaries that could be spent in the general election. Also, with luck the fight between Hillary and Barack will be nasty enough that it will sap support for the nominee when the general election comes around.

Once again, Mitt Romney has proven you can't buy the Presidency. His loss can be hinged, once again, on his lack of authenticity, a trait that would almost certain guarantee a GOP loss in November, especially against Barack Obama. There is also that aspect of his that Mike Huckabee has pointed out: he seems too much like the guy who would fire you, not the guy you would share a beer with at the bar watching the game. Its not just a matter of likability; Mitt isn't able to convince voters that he understands their situation and can relate to it. This crucial flaw can't be overcome with any amount of money. Mitt might be able to win Michigan, his family has considerable ties there. But I don't see him surging to the lead. He had counted on the double win of Iowa and New Hampshire to give him a huge amount of momentum and front-runner status. That almost was the case for Barack Obama, and it certainly wasn't the case for Mitt. If Mitt does make a comeback, I don't see him as being able to dominate his way to a majority. That means a brokered convention. Which is still a possibility, either way.