State of the Campaign Part 1

Things are approaching critical in the campaign right now.

The South Carolina primary is tomorrow, and John is currently leading the RCP average there. The good news there is that while a couple of polls show Huckabee tied with John, none show Huckabee leading. Hence it seems John has at least a slight edge going into the primary. South Carolina is Fred Thompson's "firewall" state. If he loses there, odds are good he will at the very least be crippled, and might even drop out. I suspect he will stay in until Super Tuesday, counting on grabbing some delegates in southern states and hoping for a brokered convention, where he has a decent chance of winning.

South Carolina may determine who wins Florida. If John wins South Carolina, he stands a good chance of winning in Florida, where he is leading the RCP average. Winning Florida is huge for several reasons. Its a big state, and shows the likely outcome of other big states come Super Tuesday. Secondly, its right now a winner-take-all state, which means the winner would accumulate a huge number of delegates, and quite possibly take the lead. Most importantly, its the last major primary before Super Tuesday, and would provide a good surge of momentum going into February 5th. Florida is Rudy Giuliani's firewall state, if he loses there he will suffer a crippling blow from which there is no recovery. Florida represents Rudy's only chance to reverse weeks of cratering in the polls, both nationally, and in major states like California. A loss there means any chance of his winning the nomination is gone. Unfortunately for Rudy, and fortunately for John, even a win in Florida will probably not be enough. He is almost out of money, and the week from Florida to Super Tuesday won't be enough time to build the necessary war chest. And probably not enough time to reverse the trends either.


State of the Candidates:

John McCain has the clearest path to the nomination right now. He is ahead in both South Carolina and Florida, and leading in national polls right now as well. The latter is good news for Super Tuesday. He is also the most electable, doing the best in head-to-head match-ups against the major Democratic contendors.

Mitt Romney has abandoned South Carolina. He is instead hunting delegates in Nevada instead. This is smart, from a mathematical delegating hunting point of view. The problem is that all of the media focus for the Republicans will be on South Carolina; a place where it looks like he will at best reach third. This will not look good for his campaign, which invested quite a lot of time and money there for many months. The Nevada news cycle will be preoccupied with
the Hillary/Obama showdown. A Romney win will be largely overshadowed. Romney's strategy is in disarray. His plan centered on winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Then it would have been a momentum push to knock out Giuliani in Florida and cruise to a Super Tuesday victory. Now it looks like he won't win any of those three. This means he won't gain the national attention as front-runner he needed for his previous strategy to work. His only asset? Money. But is he willing to spend millions more of his own money on a risky strategy of a long slog to grab delegates? Still, he has a long shot of it.

Mike Huckabee is playing the role of an insurgent of sorts right now. He is grabbing a large chunk of the Evangelical vote, and seems to have sewed much of it up. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't broadened his base any. This means he will effectively be a regional candidate, doing well only in states with plenty of Evangelicals, which means mostly the South. His chances of winning are low. Many economic conservatives openly detest him for his fiscal policies, and will not support him. Foreign poliicy conservatives also express great concern for him, and would much rather support a stalwart like John McCain. He has almost no chance of winning a brokered convention. At the moment his is mostly a foil for Fred and Mitt, keeping social conservatives away from them.


Fred Thompson dropped the ball. His late entry into the race, and his campaign's poor organization, meant that he was never able to attract the core conservatives he needed to win. He is almost out of money, and is currently polling at around 3rd in South Carolina, his only chance to win a state before Super Tuesday. While very few dislike him, not enough people support him for his campaign to carry through. His only real chance of a win is in a brokered convention, where his status as many people's second choice (including yours truly) will give an edge. His role at this moment seems to be a spoiler for Romney, taking away core conservatives who might otherwise support him.

Rudy Giuliani was the effective front-runner of the Republican candidates for a while. No longer. His national numbers have tanked, his state numbers are doing the same. It now looks as if he will not place in the top third in any of the primaries and caucuses to date. That means he will be 0/15 for top three spots until January 31st at best. His campaign is falling apart, with many of his supporters choosing to support John McCain instead. Rudy banked on a late-state strategy; that is, focusing on the big state of Florida and then hoping to sweep the field on Super Tuesday. That strategy has now shown itself to be fool-hardy. By losing so many elections in a row, Giuliani has not reinforced his supporters or refilled his campaign coffers. Also, the only news that Rudy has gotten in the last few weeks or so has been bad news. At the moment, Rudy's only hope is a miracle win in Florida, followed by a massive, unrealistic wave of momentum that can erase weeks of atrophy. Like Mike Huckabee, Rudy has an almost zero chance of winning a brokered convention. His social views are anathema to too many Republicans.


So who are the Republicans, right now, who can win the GOP nomination? John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson

John's path to the nomination is clearest, with wins in South Carolina and Florida visible. This means a strong Super Tuesday showing, and a easy follow through. Even if that doesn't work out, he can still win a delegate hunt strategy, thanks to high national poll numbers. John also has a good chance in a brokered convention, based on the fact that he is the most electable, and has the highest support and lowest disapproval among the Republicans.

Mitt Romney right now has perhaps the second best path to the nomination, but its really not that great, just better than everyone else. Right now his best hope is to win Florida thanks to a divided field, use the momentum to push his national numbers up and grab enough delegates on Super Tuesday to outlast everyone and win a delegate hunt. He has a decent chance in a brokered convention, at least on the basis of positioning himself well to attract support from all wings of the party. However, the other candidates dislike him and his core opposition is the highest among all the candidates.

Fred Thompson's chance of winning a general primary campaign are nearly non-existent, however he stands an excellent chance in a brokered convention. That is still a possibility, especially if Rudy wins in Florida and recovers some lost ground on Super Tuesday.


More on the State of the Campaign on Sunday, the 20th, after the South Carolina Primary and Nevada Caucuses.